The Facts Behind Non-Citizen Voter Fraud Claims and Their Actual Impact on Elections
- Benjammin
- Mar 14
- 4 min read
A frequent and contentious point of debate in American politics is the extent of non-citizen voter fraud. While isolated incidents occur, understanding the actual scale and significance of this phenomenon requires moving beyond political rhetoric to examine data and analysis from a range of reliable sources. A recent post by the VA 9th Congressional District Democratic Committee highlighted this issue with an infographic that provides a data point for this discussion.
Understanding the Heritage Foundation’s Data on Non-Citizen Voting
The infographic highlights two key figures from The Heritage Foundation’s Election Fraud Database:
77 cases of non-citizens who successfully cast ballots over 24 years.
10 cases of undocumented immigrants who voted.
During the same period, over 1 billion ballots were cast nationwide. This leads to an estimated fraud rate of 0.00000764% for non-citizen voting, a number so small it is described as statistically microscopic.
This data suggests that while non-citizen voting does occur, it is extremely rare compared to the total number of votes cast. The Heritage Foundation, known for its conservative stance, aims to document election fraud cases, yet even their data shows minimal instances of this specific type of fraud.
What Does This Number Really Mean?
To fully understand the infographic's conclusion, it is helpful to examine the Heritage Foundation’s database itself. While it is a widely cited resource, fact-checkers and other non-partisan analyses have consistently pointed to critical context.
Clerical Errors vs. Deliberate Fraud: Independent reviews by various news and policy organizations have noted that many entries in the database involve administrative mistakes, voter confusion over complex eligibility rules, or cases of ineligible voters registering but not casting a ballot. These are often distinct from coordinated or massive fraud campaigns.
Outdated Information: The database is cumulative over decades and doesn't always reflect current election security measures or updated information about specific cases.
Scale and Scope: In many states, the number of confirmed cases is incredibly small when compared to the millions of eligible and registered voters. For instance, in a state-level analysis of North Carolina's voting data, only 44 individuals were identified as potential non-citizens who might have voted, out of 4.8 million cast ballots.
Bipartisan Policy Center: This organization, which works with experts from across the political spectrum, has emphasized that while no system is 100% secure, the existing safeguards in place work effectively. In their analyses, they find no evidence of widespread, organized non-citizen voting.
Examining the Nature of Reported Cases
Independent fact-checkers and non-partisan organizations have reviewed The Heritage Foundation’s database and found that many entries involve:
Clerical errors such as data entry mistakes.
Voter confusion about eligibility rules.
Cases where ineligible voters registered but did not actually cast ballots.
These findings suggest that not all reported cases represent deliberate fraud. Some are administrative or procedural errors that do not affect election results.
Legal Safeguards and Deterrents
It's also crucial to understand the legal framework that deters non-citizen voting. Federal law requires individuals to be U.S. citizens to vote in presidential and congressional elections.
During the voter registration process, applicants must declare their citizenship under penalty of perjury. This declaration is a significant barrier. Penalties for violating this law are severe and include:
Fines and potential prison time.
Immediate deportation and a permanent bar from re-entering the United States, as well as being ineligible for future citizenship.
For the vast majority of non-citizens, including legal permanent residents, the risk of these penalties far outweighs any perceived benefit from casting a single vote in an election.
Broader Research on Non-Citizen Voting
Other comprehensive studies and government investigations support the conclusion that non-citizen voting is rare:
A 2017 study by the Brennan Center for Justice found that voter fraud of all types is extremely uncommon.
The U.S. Department of Justice has prosecuted very few cases involving non-citizen voting.
Academic research indicates that the risk of non-citizen voting affecting election outcomes is negligible.
These sources emphasize the importance of distinguishing between isolated incidents and systemic problems.
Why Does the Myth of Widespread Non-Citizen Voting Persist?
Several factors contribute to the persistence of claims about widespread non-citizen voter fraud:
Political rhetoric often amplifies rare cases to support stricter voting laws.
Media coverage sometimes highlights isolated incidents without context.
Complex voter eligibility rules can confuse voters and officials, leading to misinterpretation.
Understanding these factors helps explain why the issue remains a hot topic despite minimal evidence.
The Impact of Non-Citizen Voting on Elections
Given the extremely low number of confirmed cases, non-citizen voting has not been shown to affect election outcomes at the local, state, or national level. Elections are decided by margins far larger than the number of documented non-citizen votes.
Efforts to address voter fraud should focus on maintaining election integrity without creating unnecessary barriers that could disenfranchise eligible voters.
Moving Forward with Data and Context
When discussing voter fraud, it is crucial to rely on accurate data and context. The Heritage Foundation’s database, despite its conservative origins, shows that non-citizen voter fraud is statistically insignificant. Other independent studies confirm this finding.
Policymakers and voters should focus on:
Improving voter registration accuracy.
Educating voters about eligibility.
Ensuring transparent and fair election processes.
This approach supports both election security and voter access.
Further Reading
Primary Claim Source
VA 9th Congressional District Democratic Committee (The originating infographic)
Categories of Election Fraud | The Heritage Foundation (The database referenced in the infographic)
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